← 3/14/2026 [TCG] League PTM NA Online Grand Archive Regional #2
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at 3/14/2026 [TCG] League PTM NA Online Grand Archive Regional #2
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 9.9% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 41.1% | -6.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.6% | 4 | 1-0-3 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 53.3% | +2.1 |
| Water Fractal | 7.4% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 40.4% | -7.2 |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 59.9% | +7.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.7% | +6.5 |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 54.1% | +3.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.3% | +2.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.2 |
| Water Tristan | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 23 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Palvor Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sacred Engulfment | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Protect Her At All Costs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flared Iridescence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |